At the low edge of a strawberry field, a drain grate can look like an afterthought. In a wet winter, it is part of the route water takes off the ranch—and a reminder that flood readiness is often less dramatic than the word “flood.”
The California Department of Water Resources says a record-setting El Niño has raised the odds of a wetter-than-average winter and increased flood risk statewide. Its Flood Preparedness Week message is a warning to prepare, not a prediction of what will happen on a particular berry ranch.
A statewide signal, not a field forecast
The distinction matters for growers deciding whether to alter irrigation plans. UC Agriculture and Natural Resources reported that the likelihood of an unusually wet winter and coastal and inland flooding was rising, citing climate scientist Daniel Swain’s October update. That is a reason to take the possibility seriously; it does not specify rainfall or flooding at a farm.
For berry operations, the useful question is local: where would runoff collect, which routes need to stay usable, and what field conditions would justify changing a water decision? A broad seasonal outlook cannot answer those questions on its own.
Where flood planning meets field work
DWR describes a broader state effort to reduce flood risk through infrastructure maintenance and improvements, room for rivers to carry high flows, and better forecasting. Those measures shape the larger system around farms, but they do not replace ranch-level planning.
The department has also been preparing with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services for possible flooding. In its water-year update, the state said the governor had proclaimed an emergency to bolster preparedness.
UCANR has published a flood-preparation checklist for Californians facing the prospect of severe El Niño impacts. For a farm manager, the forecast becomes more actionable when paired with a ranch map, known trouble spots, and a clear call on who makes operational changes.