Tulare County supplied more than half the groves in California’s navel-orange survey. Its 437 surveyed groves make a much longer tally than Fresno County’s 138.
The initial crop estimate is based on fieldwork conducted from June 23 through August 16, a stretch of summer spent counting fruit on trees rather than weighing cartons at the packinghouse. The survey period and preliminary forecast put a statewide number on the crop before harvest.
A count made in the grove
The survey covered 813 navel-orange groves across several counties. It estimated an average fruit set of 312 per tree, up 8% from the prior year.
That count is one input to a crop forecast, not a packing report. The estimate can help frame early conversations about volume, but the trees have not yet delivered cartons through the packing line.
Cara Cara in the mix
The forecast includes conventional, organic, and specialty navel oranges, rather than treating the crop as one undifferentiated category. The total estimate is 84 million cartons.
Cara Cara oranges account for an expected 13 million cartons. That is a large enough slice of the estimate to matter to marketers planning for a variety with its own place in the navel mix.
For now, the report is an opening measure of the crop, drawn from grove counts and fruit-set estimates. Actual packed volume will come later, after fruit size and packout are known.